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Economic recovery to need both fiscal, monetary policy support: Experts


India’s economic recovery post covid to need both fiscal, monetary policy support. Data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed that the Indian economy grew by a record 20.1 per cent in the April-June quarter, helped by a very weak base of last year and a sharp rebound in the manufacturing and services sectors in spite of a devastating second wave of COVID-19 cases. Brickwork Ratings Chief Economic Advisor M Govinda Rao said the first quarter GDP growth is quite close to the growth estimate put out by the RBI. “On the expenditure side, the performance of private consumption and investment continue to be on a slow track, and this also points to the need for heavy lifting needed by the government to fast track the recovery process.

“The fast paced global recovery may help the exports to grow but the government will have to act swiftly in correcting the protectionist stance, fast tracking trade agreements and keeping the exchange rate at a realistic level,” Rao added. Going ahead, the revival of the economy will continue at a faster pace in the coming quarters, he said. Even if there is a third wave, the disruptions are not likely to be large due to the progress in vaccination and the resilience of the economy gained after experiencing the first two waves of the pandemic. “The overall growth for FY22 estimated at 9.5 per cent by the RBI is likely to hold and in fact, even may exceed. However, the revival of the private investment cycle is quite some time away and is not likely to happen before 2022-23,” Rao added.

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