China Warns Of Bubble Risk In Humanoid Robotics Market
- ByStartupStory | November 30, 2025
NDRC Flags Over 150 Firms Producing Similar Robots Amid Frenzied Investment
China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has issued a rare public warning about bubble risks forming in the rapidly expanding humanoid robotics sector, despite designating it a key economic growth driver through 2030. NDRC spokeswoman Li Chao highlighted concerns over more than 150 companies flooding the market with highly similar robots, potentially crowding out genuine R&D and leading to overcapacity.
Echoes Of Past Investment Manias
The alert reflects Beijing’s unease with excessive capital pouring into humanoid robotics, mirroring previous frenzies in bike-sharing and semiconductors that triggered industry shakeouts. While government support and strong supply chains fuel innovation from startups like EngineAI, Unitree, and AgiBot, Li stressed the need to balance growth speed against bubble formation, especially with limited real-world applications beyond demos and testing.
The Solactive China Humanoid Robotics Index has surged nearly 30% this year on investor enthusiasm, with Citigroup projecting a $7 trillion global market by 2050. However, widespread household or factory deployment remains distant, raising fears of hype-driven valuations without validated demand.
Push For Consolidation And Fair Competition
Authorities plan to accelerate market entry/exit mechanisms, core technology R&D, and shared testing infrastructure nationwide. Consolidation of resources aims to foster practical applications while preventing repetitive products from saturating the sector and squeezing smaller players.
This caution arrives as Tesla CEO Elon Musk warns of China’s potential dominance in humanoid robots, with firms like UBTech reporting billion-yuan orders but struggling for mass adoption. Beijing’s intervention signals intent to guide the industry toward sustainable scale rather than speculative excess.
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