The eVTOL take-off, part two: Looking ahead to 2022
- ByStartupStory | December 29, 2021
This year was a watershed for the electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) industry, marked by billion-dollar exits, huge venture deals and more partnerships. But in many ways, the past year should be thought of as the setting of a chess board before a match: the pieces are in place. Now it is time to play.
That means that 2022 will be a make it or break it year, at least for those developers who have publicly stated ambitions of hitting commercial operations by 2024. What will next year hold in store, not just for them, but for the sector more broadly? Below are some top predictions and trends to look out for in the coming year.
Overall, the sentiment from experts, analysts and VCs we spoke to seemed to be that 2022 will be critical for separating the wheat from the chaff — specifically when it comes to certification of the aircraft with the Federal Aviation Administration, a prerequisite for any company that hopes to get their aircraft off the ground.
“The main story of 2022, it’s definitely going to be certification,” Sergio Cecutta, founder and partner at SMG Consulting, said. “It’s the year of put up or shut up.” Due to certification timelines, Cecutta said that companies that want to enter service in 2024 need to start flying with the FAA for certification credit by the end of next year in order to hit that target.
David Wyatt, a technology analyst at IDTechEx, agreed. “What I want to see in 2022 is more aircraft in the air,” he said. “To have something that’s certifiable by [2024], they have to start getting substantial aircraft in the air and really demonstrating the capabilities of those aircraft.”
“They’re not going to be complete, finished products, but at least a real ramp up in prototyping is what you’d be wanting to see from these companies who have raised the money,” he added. “They need to start demonstrating to investors that they’re capable of building these aircraft and getting them through flight certification.”
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